Collage made by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui tracing the USA-China relation since the Presidency of Donald Trump that we consider as the opening of a New Chapter that we are still reading up to now
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Ph.D. ★ Strategic Catalyst Driving U.S.-Morocco-Africa Investment, Trade, and Business Development ★ Senior Policy Adviser in International Affairs ★ Accomplished Public Speaker ★ Distinguished News Executive Editor ★ The recent decline in the United States’ standing in the Arab world and China’s growing influence indeed has significant implications. Let’s break down … Continue reading
It’s about to be “Trade War Summer” in Europe!
The EU is expected to slap tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week, citing a months-long investigation into Beijing’s subsidies for EV manufacturers.
The move comes amid wider EU-China trade tensions over green technologies like EVs, solar panels, and batteries, where China has become a major low-cost producer whose exports often undercut those of Western competitors.
The EU says China is unfairly subsidizing producers and “dumping” goods in Europe that it can’t sell at home because of weak consumer demand.
China says it’s being unfairly punished for being too good at producing precisely the products the West claims it wants to meet its climate goals.
Experts doubt the tariffs will be big enough to dent sales. Chinese EVs are relatively cheap in the EU, starting at around $32,000.
But China could retaliate against EU industries. Chinese media say local firms want Beijing to consider EU subsidies for European brandy, dairy products, and pork.
If the Europeans try to unplug Chinese EVs, expect Beijing to clap back fast with tariffs of its own on those industries, upping the ante in a trade dispute between the world’s largest exporter (China) and the world’s largest advanced consumer market (the EU).
C’est sur le point d’être « l’été de la guerre commerciale » en Europe !
L’UE devrait imposer cette semaine des droits de douane sur les véhicules électriques fabriqués en Chine, citant une enquête de plusieurs mois sur les subventions accordées par Pékin aux fabricants de véhicules électriques.
Cette décision intervient dans un contexte de tensions commerciales plus larges entre l’UE et la Chine sur les technologies vertes comme les véhicules électriques, les panneaux solaires et les batteries, où la Chine est devenue un important producteur à bas prix dont les exportations sont souvent inférieures à celles de ses concurrents occidentaux.
L’UE affirme que la Chine subventionne injustement les producteurs et « dumping » en Europe des produits qu’elle ne peut pas vendre chez elle en raison de la faible demande des consommateurs.
La Chine affirme qu’elle est injustement punie pour avoir trop bien réussi à produire précisément les produits que l’Occident prétend vouloir pour atteindre ses objectifs climatiques.
Les experts doutent que les droits de douane soient suffisamment élevés pour nuire aux ventes. Les véhicules électriques chinois sont relativement bon marché dans l’UE, à partir d’environ 32 000 dollars.
Mais la Chine pourrait riposter contre les industries européennes. Les médias chinois affirment que les entreprises locales souhaitent que Pékin envisage des subventions européennes pour le brandy, les produits laitiers et le porc européens.
Si les Européens tentent de débrancher les véhicules électriques chinois, on s’attend à ce que Pékin réagisse rapidement en imposant ses propres droits de douane sur ces industries, faisant monter la barre dans un conflit commercial entre le plus grand exportateur mondial (la Chine) et le plus grand marché de consommation avancé au monde (l’UE). .
Updated 06/13/2024
The implications of China’s exports to Russia and their overall trends have significant ramifications for the world economy and geopolitical relations. Let’s explore key points:
China-Russia Trade Trends:
China’s exports to Russia have surged, with a 41.5% increase in January and February 2024 compared to the same period last year 1. Key export products include machinery, nuclear reactors, vehicles, electronics, and electrical equipment 2.
Economic Impact:
Western sanctions on Russia have led Moscow to pivot toward China for economic support. China relies on Russian crude oil and coal for manufacturing and energy security. Settlements for trade have been delayed due to Chinese banks treading carefully amid sanctions 3.
Les implications des exportations chinoises vers la Russie et leurs tendances générales ont des conséquences importantes sur l’économie mondiale et les relations géopolitiques. Explorons les points clés :
Tendances commerciales sino-russes :
Les exportations chinoises vers la Russie ont bondi, avec une augmentation de 41,5 % en janvier et février 2024 par rapport à la même période de l’année dernière 1. Les principaux produits d’exportation comprennent les machines, les réacteurs nucléaires, les véhicules, l’électronique et les équipements électriques 2.
Impact economique:
Les sanctions occidentales contre la Russie ont conduit Moscou à se tourner vers la Chine pour obtenir un soutien économique. La Chine dépend du pétrole brut et du charbon russes pour sa production manufacturière et sa sécurité énergétique. Les règlements commerciaux ont été retardés en raison de la prudence des banques chinoises face aux sanctions 3.
Geopolitical Implications:
China and Russia are not formal allies but have strengthened ties to challenge U.S. hegemony. Western democracies’ re-engagement with China while maintaining tough stances reflects a delicate balancing act 4. The U.S. and EU closely monitor China’s sustained Russian trade, which could impact their relations 3.
Western Economies’ Reaction:
Western policymakers face challenges in responding to China’s growing role in Russia’s defense industry. Enacting comparable sanctions on China would be disruptive to the global economy 5. The U.S. Treasury has issued stern warnings to China over supporting Russia’s war machinery 6.
China’s trade with Russia amid sanctions has complex implications, affecting global dynamics and requiring careful diplomatic maneuvering by Western economies. 2 4 1 3 5 6
Bibliographical References: 1 bizbeat.nus.edu.sg – 2 tradingeconomics.com – 3 scmp.com – 4 voanews.com – 5 csis.org – 6 btimesonline.com – 7 crsreports.congress.gov – 8 oec.world – 9 carnegieendowment.org – 10 en.wikipedia.org – 11 cigionline.org – 12 cfr.org – 13 newsweek.com – 14 msn.com – 15 gvwire.com – 16 msn.com
Implications géopolitiques :
La Chine et la Russie ne sont pas des alliées formelles mais ont renforcé leurs liens pour défier l’hégémonie américaine. Le réengagement des démocraties occidentales envers la Chine, tout en maintenant des positions fermes, reflète un délicat exercice d’équilibre 4. Les États-Unis et l’UE surveillent de près le commerce soutenu de la Chine avec la Russie, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur leurs relations 3.
Réaction des économies occidentales :
Les décideurs politiques occidentaux sont confrontés à des difficultés pour répondre au rôle croissant de la Chine dans l’industrie de défense russe. L’imposition de sanctions comparables à la Chine perturberait l’économie mondiale 5. Le Trésor américain a lancé de sévères avertissements à la Chine concernant son soutien à la machine de guerre russe 6.Le commerce de la Chine avec la Russie dans un contexte de sanctions a des implications complexes, affectant la dynamique mondiale et nécessitant des manœuvres diplomatiques prudentes de la part des économies occidentales. 2 4 1 3 5 6
Références Bibliographiques: 1 bizbeat.nus.edu.sg – 2 tradingeconomics.com – 3 scmp.com – 4 voanews.com – 5 csis.org – 6 btimesonline.com – 7 crsreports.congress.gov – 8 oec.world – 9 carnegieendowment.org – 10 en.wikipedia.org – 11 cigionline.org – 12 cfr.org – 13 newsweek.com – 14 msn.com – 15 gvwire.com – 16 msn.com
Putin to visit North Korea and Vietnam
Russian state media reported Monday that President Vladimir Putin will travel to North Korea and Vietnam in the coming weeks as Moscow tries to build influence among middle powers in Asia.
This will be Putin’s first trip to Pyongyang in 24 years, and he’ll find the city much changed. In 2000, the massive unfinished Ryugyong Hotel loomed skeletally over Stalinist-era apartment blocks, in an almost-too-on-the-nose metaphor for the country’s paranoid and feeble state two years after the 1994-1998 mass famine. Putin was in town to officially reestablish relations with North Korea, which had ruptured following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Today, the DPRK’s economy can now support a level of prosperity in Pyongyang — including cladding for that still-empty hotel, and some high-rises nearby to soften the landscape. It also now has nuclear weapons to protect itself from the US and artillery shells Russia needs in Ukraine, meaning Putin has to show up with something a little more high-tech in hand.
He’s previously pledged to help North Korea put spy satellites in orbit, which it accomplished for the first time last year. But a subsequent launch this May, which South Korean intelligence believes was aided by Russian technicians, exploded shortly after takeoff. Nonetheless, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un says he wants to launch three more spy satellites this year, and we have our eye out for any indication of where the cooperation might go from here.
The Vietnam leg is less juicy by comparison. Hanoi and Moscow have a tight military relationship stretching back to the early Cold War, but Vietnam has recently been courting better relations with the US to offset threats from China. We’re expecting a carefully choreographed visit with little that could rock the boat.
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