Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Ph.D.
★ Strategic Catalyst Driving U.S.-Morocco-Africa Investment, Trade, and Business Development ★ Senior Policy Adviser in International Affairs ★ Accomplished Public Speaker ★ Distinguished News Executive Editor ★
The recent decline in the United States’ standing in the Arab world and China’s growing influence indeed has significant implications. Let’s break down some key points:
Public Opinion Shift:
- A new public opinion survey reveals that Arab citizens’ views of the United States have sharply declined due to its support for Israel during the conflict in Gaza.
- China, surprisingly, emerges as the main beneficiary in the region.
China’s Diplomatic Gains:
- Beijing is capitalizing on this situation, reaping diplomatic rewards with minimal investment.
- China’s humanitarian aid, high-level visits, and rhetorical support for the Palestinians are paying off.
Impact Beyond the Middle East:
- China’s benefits extend beyond the Middle East to Southeast Asia.
- Public approval of the U.S. among Muslim-majority populations in Southeast Asia has also fallen sharply.
U.S. Political Polarization:
- American politicians used to care about global perceptions of the U.S., but today’s intense political polarization hinders such considerations.
- President Biden faces constraints due to internal divisions within Congress and his own party.
China’s Rising Influence:
- The longer the Gaza conflict persists, the more China’s standing grows in the Middle East and the Global South.
In this complex geopolitical landscape, the balance of power is shifting, and China is strategically leveraging opportunities.
The Recipe for World Madness In the Islamic Regions
Since Father Bush’s Presidency, the equation of U.S. Foreign Policy has tilted toward direct intervention and reshaping of the Muslim World of North Africa, Subsaharan Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
Today is the return of the crank of an engine that rusted given that no improvement in the living conditions of the masses occurred despite all the given promises that the change of regimes will bring better life.
This lack of materialization added more burden on the shoulders of the people on top of the ones driven by the new rulers installed in a new democratic way made the United States Foreign Policy be seen as a change in the continuity if not worsening the social, economic, and financial structures in these regions.
The East and the West rivalry exacerbated these localized tensions resulting from the direct competition between China and the United States, the split of the World Geopolitics in dual and multipolar divisions also deepened.
The evolving landscape of U.S. foreign policy in the Islamic regions has been marked by complex dynamics and shifting priorities. Let’s explore some key aspects:
Post-Cold War Interventions: Since the era of President George H.W. Bush, U.S. foreign policy has increasingly involved direct intervention and reshaping in Muslim-majority regions.
North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia have been focal points for strategic engagement.
Unfulfilled Promises: Despite promises of positive change under new regimes, living conditions for the masses have not significantly improved.
The gap between expectations and reality has burdened the population.
Continuity and Challenges: The transition to democratic governance has sometimes failed to address underlying social, economic, and financial issues.
Some perceive U.S. foreign policy as perpetuating existing structures rather than effecting positive transformation.
Global Rivalries: The rivalry between the East (China) and the West (United States) has intensified localized tensions.
Geopolitical divisions have deepened, impacting stability and regional dynamics.
In this complex landscape, the pursuit of stability, development, and peace remains a delicate balancing act.
How about Africa where the U.S. presence like France is no more accepted such today in Niger with the rapatriation of the U.S. forces from Niger, 900 soldiers and the rejection of the French army presence by Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso along the rise of Russian intelligence and military and the Chinese financial and economi presence in the same area of Africa
Case studies that shed light on the challenges related to U.S. foreign policy in the Islamic regions:
US Foreign Policy and Conflict in Eurasia:
- This series examines the role of U.S. foreign policy in exacerbating or ameliorating hostilities among and within Muslim nations.
- It explores tensions between Islamic groups and the West, particularly in the context of security concerns after 9/11.
- Case studies delve into specific instances where U.S. actions influenced dynamics in the region.
Key Challenges for U.S. Policy in the Middle East:
- This policy brief analyzes pressing issues in the Middle East for U.S. policymakers.
- Topics include the evolution of Islamist politics, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, security in the Persian Gulf, and displacement.
- The brief provides policy recommendations based on expert insights.
Challenges within the Muslim World:
- Decisions made during the Cold War to counter the Soviet Union had unintended consequences.
- U.S. support for religious radicals in Afghanistan in the 1980s contributed to the rise of Islamist extremism.
- The fight against al-Qaeda and other radical groups today traces back to those policy choices.
These case studies highlight the complexities and long-term implications of U.S. engagement in the Islamic regions.
African nations navigate a delicate balancing act in their relations with multiple global powers.
Diversification: African countries engage with various powers, including the United States, China, Russia, and regional actors. By diversifying partnerships, they avoid overreliance on any single nation.
Pragmatism: African leaders prioritize national interests over ideological alignment. They seek economic, security, and development benefits from different partners.
Balancing Act: African nations balance cooperation and competition among major powers.
Evolving dynamics in Africa, where various global powers are asserting their influence:
French Withdrawal:
- French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to withdraw French troops from Niger came after demands from the country’s military leadership.
- This move reflects a broader trend of French withdrawals from African countries, including Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, and Mali.
- Anti-French sentiment has been on the rise across parts of the continent.
U.S. Presence:
- The U.S. maintains approximately 1,100 troops in Niger, despite the French withdrawal.
- Washington aims to enhance its influence in the region, but it should heed the French setback as a cautionary tale.
- Relying on venal, corrupt, and illegitimate regimes can carry significant risks, especially if those regimes are overthrown.
Russian Influence:
- Russia has been expanding its presence in Africa, using private military companies (PMCs) like the Wagner Group.
- Russian involvement includes security support, military alliances, and economic ties.
- The fallout from the war in Ukraine has accelerated Russia’s efforts to tilt Africa in its favor.
Chinese Engagement:
- China is Africa’s largest trading partner, investing heavily in infrastructure, trade, and development loans.
- While China’s economic and military involvement still lags behind that of the West, it continues to grow.
- African countries seek to avoid choosing sides between major powers, viewing it as a relic of the Cold War era.
In this complex landscape, African nations must navigate competing interests while maintaining agency in global frameworks. They aim to maximize gains while minimizing risks.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has significant implications for global dynamics, including China’s role. Here are some key points:
China’s Diplomatic Influence: As Russia’s actions face international condemnation, China has positioned itself as a diplomatic player in the South and beyond.
Beijing’s engagement with countries seeking alternatives to U.S.-Russia tensions strengthens its standing.
South-South Cooperation:
By fostering stronger ties, China becomes a peer to G7 economies.
Strategic Calculations:
China’s support for Russia is multifaceted. It goes beyond the military conflict and aligns with its response to U.S. containment strategies. Beijing’s investments and partnerships yield returns, even amid geopolitical complexities.
In this evolving landscape, China’s role as a diplomatic force continues to shape global relations.
In the case of Lobito investment, China hold the primary role and in the Central Africa and Sahel, Russia hold the military power making Africa to be more tuned toward a nationalistic approach for its development and using the colonialism and the neo-colonialism as the reason of changing the rulers by new military militants instead the legation of the western countries
Lobito Investment: The Lobito Atlantic Railway project, covering Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Zambia, is a significant infrastructure initiative. Led by the United States, the project aims to enhance logistical infrastructure in southern Africa. However, Chinese state-owned enterprises and private companies already dominate critical mineral supply chains (such as copper and cobalt) needed for electric vehicle components. The Lobito Corridor project may inadvertently benefit Chinese companies more than originally intended.
Russia’s Military Influence: Russia has expanded military cooperation with former Portuguese colonies in West Africa. It seeks to spread influence from the landlocked Sahel and Central African Republic (CAR) into key waterways for regional and transatlantic shipping. Russian Atlantic basing in West Africa serves as an alternative to Mediterranean basing, potentially threatening NATO’s flank.
Nationalistic Approach: African nations are increasingly turning to military rulers due to declining confidence in civilian leaders. Weakness of African armies encourages preoccupation with domestic order. Military leaders plot against civilian orders they find intolerable, leading to coups d’état.
Changing Rulers: The continent has entered a period of political turmoil, with several states experiencing coups d’état. Possession of weapons often becomes a fast track to power for military officers. European troops rarely intervene during rapid coups, emboldening African officers.
China’s economic influence and Russia’s military presence shape Africa’s development and governance, with implications for nationalistic approaches and changes in leadership.
