Chinese electric carmakers may be crying foul over the European Union’s imposition of additional tariffs, but they have several options to keep growing, including shifting production to the continent and using fat profit margins to absorb some of the hit.
Companies could also turn their attention to new markets in the Middle East, Latin America and Southeast Asia, where EVs comprise a small but growing segment of the passenger car market.
The European Commission on Wednesday formally notified automakers including BYD Co., Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and MG owner SAIC Motor Corp. of the additional levies on battery electric cars, which will take tariffs to as high as 48% from next month. China’s EV manufacturers have been pushing more aggressively into Europe amid a domestic price war and years of building a lead in the technology.
“As Chinese automakers grow stronger, it’s natural for them to face trade actions like tariff increases,” said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of China’s Passenger Car Association. “Even if there’s suppression of cars exported from China, automakers are not going to be defeated by the added tariff. Instead, it will only make them stronger.”
BYD shares jumped as much as 8.8% in Hong Kong trading Thursday, leading gains among Chinese EV makers on a view the added tariffs are manageable.
EVs made in China, such as BYD’s Dolphin compact crossover and the MG 4, fetch roughly double on average in Europe compared to their home region, customs data show, giving the manufacturers a cushion against the new tariffs.
The Middle East has emerged as a new market for China’s EV makers too, including Chery Auto, Xpeng Inc. and Geely’s premium Zeekr brand. Nio Inc. Chief Executive Officer William Li earlier this month said the EU’s tariff push was going in “substantially the wrong direction” and the company will start expanding to the Middle East later this year.
Europe’s tariff hikes will have a “minor impact” on Chinese manufacturers because the region accounts for only a fraction of their total sales, according to Daiwa Securities analyst Kevin Lau. Europe contributed between 1% to 3% of overall sales for BYD, Geely and SAIC in the first four months of this year, he estimated.
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*The European Union has approved the imposition of a surcharge of up to 35% on imports of Chinese electric vehicles. *
Unless there is a last-minute agreement with China, this surcharge will be implemented from the beginning of November 2024.
The context is as follows: achieving carbon neutrality requires doing without fossil fuels, with #oil being the most widely used of them. In terms of individual mobility, this will involve in particular (although not exclusively) electric cars. In other words, the global automobile industry will have to evolve quickly and profoundly to move from thermal engines (on which the EU has know-how) to electric vehicles.
For the European Union, it is a question of not losing its manufacturers in this forced transition, while China (and the United States, but that is another subject) strongly supports its industry. In other words, through various levers, the State and especially the Chinese provinces help their manufacturers, which allows them to offer less expensive vehicles than European manufacturers.
Historically, the EU has been satisfied with this situation by only seeing the consumption aspect: if it is cheaper because it is subsidized by a third State, it is advantageous for the European consumer. However, this situation is harmful to European companies, which pay salaries to consumers… It is also a loss of strategic autonomy and a worsening of dependencies, the most flagrant example of which is the production of photovoltaic solar panels, a devastated industry in Europe.
Since Covid and the war in Ukraine, a change of approach has been felt. The EU has become aware of its fragility and the need to fight against dumping from third countries, even if some Member States find it to their advantage and try to block this type of measure. Hence the imposition of a surcharge on imported Chinese vehicles.
There will certainly be retaliatory measures from China, but China’s dependence on Europe to sell its production, while the American market is increasingly closed, gives the EU leverage. In the event of an escalation towards a trade war, some heavily indebted Chinese provinces could find themselves in a complicated situation and the restructuring of overcapacity sectors would lead to serious economic and social problems. And China knows this.
In short, the strengthening of European trade policy is welcome. The challenge is to find a more balanced relationship with China, in which our manufacturers could compete in a more balanced way than today. The sustainability of European industry – and the strategic autonomy it provides – depends on it.
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Source: Maxence Cordiez original in French Language
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