---

Initially published – September 25, 2023, 3:43 am – updated June 28, 2024

---

🌍RISE OF CHINESE CARS OUTSIDE OF CHINA

The race to win: How automakers can succeed in a post-pandemic China – August 13, 2021 | Report

🚗

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Ph.D.  ★ Email: saidcherkaoui@triconsultingkyoto.com

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Said Cherkaoui – saidcherkaoui@triconsultingkyoto.com

Introduction

How do U.S. car producers based in the United States, other foreign car producers in the United States, European Car Manufacturers selling cars in the United States, and other Asian car producers selling or/and manufacturing cars in the United States, all these car manufacturers react and consider the arrival, establishment and expansion of Chinese made cars and Chinese EV cars and trucks and buses in the United States and Europe and Africa, Latin America and the Middle East.  

What is going to be the scenario, the new global, local, regional, and national trends and perspectives of the competition in the car industry around the world given the rise of Chinese Cars

Chinese car brands still need to be added to the US market, but Chinese-made cars are still sold in the US. 

• Americans bought 104,000 Chinese-made cars in 2023 and nearly 28,000 in the first quarter of 2024.

• Buick, Lincoln, Polestar, and Volvo all sell US cars made in China.

What some people may not realize, however, is that tens of thousands of cars manufactured in China are sold in the US every year. Volvo’s S60L sedan was one of the first Chinese-made cars to be sold in the US starting in 2016, followed by Buick’s Envision SUV and Cadillac’s CT6 hybrid.

US consumers purchased more than 104,000 Chinese-made vehicles in 2023, up 45% from 2022. Americans bought another 28,000 Chinese-made cars during the first quarter of 2024.

Buick, Lincoln, Polestar, and Volvo sell Chinese-made vehicles in the US. Of those, the only Chinese-made EVs come from Polestar, a brand owned by Volvo and its parent company, Geely. The EV brand imported just 2,217 cars in the first three months of 2024. Polestar is expected to start production in South Carolina this year. Will the U.S. government discourage the domestic output of Polestar? Source: Gene Detroyer

Global Rise of Chinese Cars

AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY, FORD

Shocks from China Gets Chills to Ford and $9.2B for EV batteries

DOE Loan Programs Office

It’s another landmark day for domestic EV battery manufacturing in the U.S.! Today, LPO announced a conditional commitment for a loan of up to $9.2 billion to BlueOval SK, LLC (BOSK) for the construction of three manufacturing plants to produce batteries for Ford Motor Company’s future Ford and Lincoln electric vehicles (EVs). This marks the eighth conditional commitment for a loan—and the largest-ever to date—that LPO has announced in the last 15 months under the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) loan program, with two of those loans having since been finalized and issued:

Together, the plants, one located in Tennessee and two in Kentucky, will enable more than 120 gigawatt hours of U.S. battery production annually and displace more than 455 million gallons of gasoline per year for the lifetime of the vehicles powered by these batteries. The project is expected to create a total of approximately 5,000 construction jobs in Tennessee and Kentucky, and 7,500 operations jobs once the plants are up and running.

This effort supports President Biden’s Investing in America agenda to onshore and re-shore domestic manufacturing of technologies that are critical to reaching a clean energy and transportation future. Expanding domestic production of American-made batteries is critical to reaching the Biden-Harris Administration’s goals to have EVs represent at least 50% of all new car sales in the U.S. by 2030, reach net-zero electricity by 2035, and a net-zero economy by 2050.

As with all conditional commitments that LPO offers, it’s important to note that the expected U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) loan will only be issued pending the satisfaction of certain conditions, including final legal, contractual, technical, and financial requirements that the conditional commitment specifies.

LPO Announces Conditional Commitment for Up to $9.2 Billion Loan for BlueOval SK to Further Expand U.S. EV Battery Manufacturing Capacity

www.energy.gov • 3 min read – 6/22/2023

Uncle Sam’s clean-energy push is giving Ford a major boost. The Energy Department has awarded the automaker a massive $9.2 billion loan to fund the construction of three EV battery plants.

a move Bloomberg reports is « by far the biggest government backing for a U.S. automaker since the bailouts in the 2009 financial crisis. »

The U.S. is trying to reduce its battery reliance on China, which has dominated the market for years and has roughly 80% of the world’s manufacturing capacity. Ford, which made about 132,000 EVs in 2022, hopes to produce 2 million of the vehicles by 2026.

The plants — two in Kentucky, one in Tennessee — are already in the works as part of BlueOval SK, a partnership between Ford and South Korean battery firm SK On. The total projected cost is $11.4 billion.

The U.S. Energy Department said Thursday it plans to lend up to $9.2 billion to a joint venture of Ford Motor and South Korea’s SK On to help it build three battery plants in Tennessee and Kentucky, a record-setting loan for a vehicle supply chain project. The conditional commitment for the low-cost government loan for the BlueOval SK joint venture comes from the government’s Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) loan program. Jigar Shah, the head of the loan program office, told Reuters the loan could close as soon as within 10 weeks.

SCOOP: Ford Motor Company & South Korean battery maker SK On are getting a $9.2 billion loan from the US Department of Energy for three battery plants under construction in Kentucky & Tennessee. It’s a watershed moment in the US race to catch China in green vehicle technology.

Community colleges in Tennessee and Kentucky stand to benefit from the government’s $9B+ investment in battery production. New workforce development and academic programs, as well as re-tooled facilities, will be needed to support the 7,500 operations jobs associated with these new plants.

Blade Batteries

Global Delocalization of Batterie Manufacturers: Example of Morocco

Let us quickly recall here the advantages which attract investments in new technologies within the countries of the South both from China and from Western countries or other nationalities aiming to relocate certain phases of their production.

The cost of intermediate production, the cost and local availability of raw materials, labor, the proximity of car suppliers and buyers, financial facilities and tax incentives, the flexibility of pollution laws, flexibility of work, the docility of social demands movements, and the rate of social charges and recovery of retirement pensions, health insurance as well as the level of unionization, the cost of land ownership and supply of these lands by the State, the level of logistical infrastructure, the ease of movement of capital, taxation and the rate of social charges and recovery of retirement pensions as well as the level of unionization, remittance and export profits as well as the company’s appropriation ratio. Not to mention the integration of operators and managers from the country of origin benefiting from all the financial and tax advantages recognized by the public authorities. 1/7/2024

First Batch of SHACMAN X6000 Series Products Rolled off the Assembly Line. Congratulations.

Asian Firms to build joint LFP cathode plants in Morocco

CNGR Advanced Material Al Mada Recycling

The focus will be on producing precursors for NCM and LFP cathode materials. The plant will also include recycling facilities. The companies are planning annual capacities of 120,000 tonnes for NCM precursors, 60,000 tonnes for LFP precursors, and 30,000 tonnes for the recycling of battery materials in the first phase. The planned annual production is 70 GWh. That should be enough for more than one million electric vehicles.

Production is mainly for export to meet the high demand in Europe and America – but the partners do not name potential customers. Construction will begin this year after the necessary permits have been obtained and production is scheduled to start in 2025. Source: Info via email

“Morocco aims to open EV battery gigafactory”

Announced on July 22, 2022, at Marrakesh.

Asian Companies Building Battery Factories in Morocco to export to Europe and the U.S.

During the summer of 2022, the Moroccan Minister of Industry and Trade declared that Morocco was negotiating with electric vehicle battery manufacturers to set up a plant in the country to mesh with its existing automotive sector and cobalt output.

“We hope to sign a deal for the plant before the end of this year,” the minister said in an interview with Reuters but declined to name the companies.

He did not say how much investment it would require but referred to it as a “gigafactory,” a term widely used for very big production facilities. The planned factory for EV batteries will “offer a huge momentum for the local automotive sector” and will benefit from the availability of renewable energy and raw materials such as cobalt and phosphates in the country, he said.

Morocco is home to Renault and Stellantis production plants, with a combined production capacity of 700,000. The Dacia Sandero and Peugeot 208 are examples of popular models that are built in Morocco. Demand for such batteries is growing outside and within Morocco, where Citroen plans to double its production capacity within two years from 50,000 EVs, Mezzour said.

Exports by about 250 automakers and suppliers in Morocco have topped the country’s industrial exports over the past seven years, surpassing phosphate sales. Up to May this year, Morocco’s automotive sector sales stood at $4.13 billion, up 24 percent. To increase competitiveness in the face of competition from China and India, Morocco plans to increase the rate of locally made parts in the cars it exports to 80 percent, up from 65 percent currently, Mezzour said.

“We are targeting 1 million within the next three to four years,” Mezzour said. Source:

And what is Europe doing for its renewable industry?

US Billions are flooding into US-based investments, so even European companies are now moving to the US for their investments.

In 2022, the top five manufacturers control more than 80 percent of the battery market.  With an increased interest in EVs – global sales of electric cars totaled 4.2 million units in 2021, up by 108 percent compared with 2020 – there’s been concern that a long list of car companies may soon face an EV battery shortage from electric car battery manufacturers.

The advantages which attract investments in new technologies within the countries of the South both from China and from Western countries or other nationalities aiming to relocate certain phases of their production. The cost of intermediate production, the cost and local availability of raw materials, labor, the proximity of car suppliers and buyers, financial facilities and tax incentives, the flexibility of pollution laws, flexibility of work, the docility of social demands movements, and the rate of social charges and recovery of retirement pensions, health insurance as well as the level of unionization, the cost of land ownership and supply of these lands by the State, the level of logistical infrastructure, the ease of movement of capital, taxation and the rate of social charges and recovery of retirement pensions as well as the level of unionization, remittance and export profits as well as the company’s appropriation ratio. Not to mention the integration of operators and managers from the country of origin benefiting from all the financial and tax advantages recognized by the public authorities.

1/7/2024

LG Energy Solution 

A unit of LG Chem, this South Korean battery supplier is neck and neck with CATL as the world’s number one supplier of lithium-ion EV batteries.

Although there has been some controversy along the way – LG Chem successfully sued rivals SK Innovations not too long ago for stealing trade secrets – the future looks bright for the company, with LG Energy Solution beginning production of 4680 cells in 2023, the very same cells which make up Tesla’s most advanced battery pack yet. 

The large format 4680 cylindrical cells are said to increase power by six times and energy by five times, as well as boost an EV’s range by up to 54 percent. 

These 4680 cells are also expected to bring the price of Tesla EVs down to around $US25,000, according to Tesla founder Elon Musk.

The company also has a US$303 million plant in Holland, Michigan, capable of producing enough cells per year to build between 50,000 and 200,000 battery packs for EV and hybrid manufacturers like Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Volvo, Renault and Chevrolet. 

By 2025, all factories in South Korea, North America, Europe, and China will operate on 100 percent renewable energy. 

BYD

Once written off by Elon Musk, China’s BYD has proven the haters wrong by becoming the world’s top seller of EVs in July 2022, having sold 641,000 vehicles in the first half of 2022 – nearly 80,000 more EVs than Tesla. 

Although it’s gained a strong footing in the EV market, BYD began life as a rechargeable battery manufacturer in 1995, and in 2021 it built a new facility in Chongqing, China, to produce its blade batteries, which are thinner and longer than conventional lithium-ion cells.

Blade batteries are also considered to be the safest EV batteries because they are far less likely to catch fire in an accident. They are also 50 percent smaller than other battery blocks, resulting in lighter and more efficient EVs. 

There seems to be no hard feelings between the Chinese behemoth and Elon Musk: BYD executive vice president Lian Yubo now says BYD is “good friends” with Mr Tesla, and has plans afoot to supply his company with EV batteries.

Panasonic 

Panasonic is another of the world’s largest lithium-ion battery manufacturers, the electronics giant partnering with Tesla on Giga Nevada – or Gigafactory 1, as it’s also known – a $5 billion lithium-ion battery and electric vehicle component factory located in Storey County, Nevada, which produces a Panasonic EV battery exclusively for Tesla’s Model 3, Model S and Model X SUV. 

Panasonic is said to have invested US$1.6 billion in Gigafactory 1 to make itself Tesla’s prime supplier of EV batteries, with raw materials being supplied by a mining company that extracts lithium from a site located 320km away from the factory.

Jointly designed and engineered by Tesla and Panasonic, the ‘2170’ battery has been in mass production since January 2017, with the new and improved 4680 battery cell, which has significant capacity improvements, going into production in 2023. 

Turning an eye to the future, Shoichiro Watanabe, CTO of Panasonic Energy, says the company will achieve a 20 percent improvement in energy density in its battery cells by the end of the decade. 

In much the same way that Tesla has partnered with other EV battery manufacturers in other international markets, Panasonic has also partnered with Toyota to build a lithium-ion battery plant in Japan that will supply batteries for Toyota EVs. Source:

Present Outlook of the World Battery Manufacturing Capacity

With the world gearing up for the electric vehicle era, battery manufacturing has become a priority for many nations, including the United States. However, having entered the race for batteries early, China is far and away in the lead.

This was originally posted on Elements. 

Predominance of China’s World Manufacturing Capacity

– China controls raw materials –

Another key factor in China’s supremacy: is control over the raw materials needed to manufacture the batteries: lithium and cobalt.

According to Bloomberg, the Chinese firms Ganfeng and Tianqi control 17 and 12 percent respectively of the world production of lithium thanks to their investments in mines in Australia and South America.

Tianqi bought a 24 percent stake in Chilean miner SQM for $4.1 billion in December 2018. Together with the US firm Albemarle it also controls the huge Greenbushes mine in Australia.

Meanwhile, Chinese firms control at least half of the cobalt extracted in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where 70 percent of global output comes from, according to estimates cited by Bloomberg.

China Molybdenum bought a major site from the US firm Freeport-McMoran for $2.65 billion in 2016. China also has 80 percent of the world’s capacity to produce refined cobalt using chemical processes.

This is not a basic skill (“We are a car manufacturer, not chemically,” said Marianne Battalion, Renault E’s project manager last year), but second, whether the production was outsourced to Koreans or Chinese, many unemployed motor factories instead.

China has 6 of the top 10 EV battery makers with 60 percent market share, led by CATL and Warren Buffett-backed BYD.

• Besides CATL and BYD, CALB, Gotion High-tech, Sunwoda, and Eve Energy feature among the world’s top 10 EV battery makers, according to SNE Research
• CATL installed 165.7 gigawatt hours of battery cells in the first 11 months of last year, giving it a global market share of 37.1 percent

China’s well-established advantage is set to continue through 2027, with 69% of the world’s battery manufacturing capacity. With nearly 900 gigawatt-hours of manufacturing capacity or 77% of the global total, China is home to six of the world’s 10 biggest battery makers. Behind China’s battery dominance is its vertical integration across the rest of the EV supply chain, from mining the metals to producing the EVs. It’s also the largest EV market, accounting for 52% of global sales in 2021.

The U.S. is projected to increase its capacity by more than 10-fold in the next five years. EV tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act are likely to incentivize battery manufacturing by rewarding EVs made with domestic materials. Alongside Ford and General Motors, Asian companies including Toyota, SK Innovation, and LG Energy Solution have all announced investments in U.S. battery manufacturing in recent months.

Europe will host six of the projected top 10 countries for battery production in 2027. Europe’s current and future battery plants come from a mix of domestic and foreign firms, including Germany’s Volkswagen, China’s CATL, and South Korea’s SK Innovation.

Combating China’s dominance will be expensive. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. and Europe will have to invest $87 billion and $102 billion, respectively, to meet domestic battery demand with fully local supply chains by 2030.

Within such an unbalanced world of Battery Manufacturing Capacity and given that Europe is using a mixed approach, Morocco is positioned to benefit from Europe’s reliance on domestic and foreign manufacturers of batteries.

Morocco, Regional Hub for Battery Material Plants

South Korea’s LG Chem partnering with China Huayou Group announced a project to build in Morocco a joint electric vehicle (EV) battery material plant. On the other side, CNGR, Chinese Battery-Parts Maker, and African Fund Al Mada aim to build an industrial base in Morocco for a battery materials production and recycling facility. All the Production of these facilities is intended for export to meet high demand in Europe and America.

 🇺🇸🚗- 🌍 AFRICANA🌍 ENTERPRISE🌍 – 🌐Morocco🌍Tech🌐 –
African-Moroccan Diaspora – Tateyoko Research Institute – USA – Tateyoko Research Institute

Articles Similaires

https://www.energy.gov/lpo/listings/projects

• What is a Conditional Commitment? https://www.energy.gov/lpo/articles/getting-know-lpo-what-conditional-commitment

• Advanced transportation project financing available through LPO’s Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) loan program: Energy.gov/LPO/ATVM

• President Biden’s « Investing in America » agenda: https://www.whitehouse.gov/invest

President Biden: Road of Jérusalem Passe par l’Usine Ford de Dearborn – Mai 19, 2021 – DANS “ETATS-UNIS D’AMÉRIQUE”

Read more below via Ars Technica.

Read the full BlueOval SK project conditional commitment announcement for more details: https://www.energy.gov/lpo/articles/lpo-announces-conditional-commitment-loan-blueoval-sk-further-expand-us-ev-battery

The Mexican-Japanese-US Model for Auto Assembly in Northern Mexico – September 29, 2020 – “AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY”

Global Liberalism and U.S. State Interventionism: Electric Auto Industry – Mai 19, 2021 – “ELECTRIC VEHICLE”

Selected articles written and published by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Said Cherkaoui on the Automobile industry in Morocco
Contact: saidcherkaoui@triconsultingkyoto.com

Globaloganization of Renault Development Strategy

🌎 Said El Mansour Cherkaoui  February 20, 2023 – saidcherkaoui@triconsultingkyto.com🌍 🌎Analyses et Publications sur l’Industrie Automobile🌍 Said El … Continue reading

Automotive Industry: Regional Versus International Strategy

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui  June 21, 2023, N.B.: Frontpage picture of the Blue Car in the First Floor Parking taken by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui … Continue reading

Morocco – Maroc – BAGNOLE CHERKAOUI 1920 – 24
   Articles traitant de Morocco – Maroc écrits par Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

https://bagnolecherkaoui.wordpress.com/category/morocco-maroc/

★ Said Cherkaoui Ph.D. ★ Strategic Catalyst Driving U.S.A-Africa and Morocco Investment, Trade, and Business Development ★ Policy Adviser in International Affairs ★ Accomplished Public Speaker ★ Distinguished News Editor ★

Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui’s Work on Africa

Dr. Cherkaoui’s holistic approach to Africa’s development underscores the interconnectedness of economic, social, and cultural factors. His work inspires hope and progress, and his legacy will continue to impact future generations.

---

International Conference on Africa, African Development Bank and AGOA, Berkeley, California, USA

Since my early studies at Institut des Etudes Politiques of the Grenoble University in France, the development, and integration of Africa were at the forefront of my studies and topics of my presentations in seminaries and essay papers. It was natural that I continue to work and increase awareness about Africa and its need to establish new kinds of relations with countries other than the past metropolitan and colonialists.

You can access and review my work and studies that I have published and collected for your perusal through the following webpage, click on the following pictures to access my selected collection of works on Africa.

---

★ EBCITD & GLOCENTRA ★

Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Dr. Boubacar N’diaye

Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Conducting a Presentation during the International Conference on Africa – AGAO – AFRICA

---

H.E. Mr Arthur Riley, U.S Ambassador in Morocco, Mr. Omar Bouafi, my Assistant and Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui: Mr. International

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui is a multifaceted individual with a diverse range of interests and accomplishments Dr. Cherkaoui promotes investment in Morocco through several strategic approaches: Business Advocacy and Networking, Policy Recommendations, Sector-Specific Initiatives, and International Partnerships 2. Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui promotes investment in Morocco through several strategic approaches: Promotion of Investment in … Continue reading

The Conference Room was packed with U.S. and Foreign officials and Executives as well as faculties and Researchers on Africa and the Place where all these interactions took place was the fabulous and monumental Claremont Hotel in Berkeley, Northern California. 

---

Explore More

African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)

Since its enactment in 2000, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been at the core of U.S. economic policy and commercial engagement with Africa. AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products, in addition to the more than 5,000 products that are eligible for duty-free access under the Generalized System of Preferences program.

To meet AGOA’s rigorous eligibility requirements, countries must establish or make continual progress toward establishing a market-based economy, the rule of law, political pluralism, and the right to due process. Additionally, countries must eliminate barriers to U.S. trade and investment, enact policies to reduce poverty, combat corruption, and protect human rights.

By providing new market opportunities, AGOA has helped bolster economic growth, promoted economic and political reform, and improved U.S. economic relations in the region.

32 countries are eligible for AGOA benefits in 2024. In 2015, Congress passed legislation modernizing and extending the program to 2025.

Additional Resources:  

• U.S. Trade Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa 
• Sub-Saharan Africa trade statistics
• U.S-sub-Saharan Africa Trade 
• AGOA Federal Register Notices
• List of eligible countries
• AGOA Biennial Reports 

Trade Statistics

U.S. Imports Under AGOA Full Year 2022

Goods Trade Between the United States and sub-Saharan Africa from 2001 through 2022

---

🌍AFRICA – AFRIQUE : ÁFRICA / أفريقيا / 非洲 🌍 Articles, Reports, Studies, Analysis, and Presentations on Africa

DIASPORA OF AFRICAN EXECUTIVES

Strengthening California with Egypt Business, Trade, and Investment Relationships

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Egypt in California

Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Facilitated the signing of the Trade Treaty between the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce and the Federation of the Egyptian Chambers of Commerce

---

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui: Mr. International

---

---

Morocco Tech Representatives at Silicon Valley Tech Firms

May 13, 2024 Said El Mansour Cherkaoui  2 tags

Real High-Level Delegation of Moroccan Government Visiting E-Gov and Cloud of Silicon Valley Computing and E-Gov   A high-level Moroccan delegation in a trade mission in the U.S. Ghita Mezzour … Read More

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Pro Endeavors

TRI CONSULTING KYOTO TRI CK USA – Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Ph.D.  ★ Publications by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui: USA-Morocco TRI CONSULTING KYOTO – TRI CK USA CALIFORNIA – Said El Mansour Cherkaoui: Mr. International Legend of the Article Cover Image: His Excellency, the U.S. Ambassador Mr. Arthur Riley U.S. Ambassador in Morocco, Mr. Omar Bouafi a Moroccan Assistant to Dr. … Continue reading Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Pro Endeavors

---

---

Recommendation by Dr. Wesley Young, Director, Services for International Students and Scholars at the University of California, Davis – https://siss.ucdavis.edu

I was the Director of Graduate Business Programs at the Dominican University of San Rafael when Dr. Cherkaoui was teaching in our international MBA program. Said brought not only a solid academic background to the classroom but also a wealth of business experience both in the US and in Asia and Latin America. He is passionate about his students and his work outside the classroom. This made him one of the most effective faculty that we had teaching at the time.

Global Center for Trade – Glocentra http://www.glocentra.weebly.com

---

Recommendation by Ersan Ertuzun, Corporate Communications Supervisor at WTC Istanbul – https://www.wtca.org/world-trade-center-istanbul

Dr. Said Cherkaoui is an exceptional figure in international business development. His broad range of expertise covers all ranges of economic development, with such accomplishments in international trade consulting, trade missions, small business development, just to name a few..

Dr. Cherkaoui has successfully conducted numerous trade missions, represented U.S. companies at trade shows, and helped companies develop their businesses overseas. His academic works have a significant contribution to the global business community, executives in world trade, and entrepreneurs.

I worked with Dr. Cherkaoui at the East Bay Center for International Trade Development. His expertise and services included and not limited to:

Always a role model and source of influence, Dr. Cherkaoui possesses extensive hands-on experience in a wide range of industries, as well as academic achievements, in the field of international trade and economic development.

---

American Institute of Entrepreneurship in Africa
Oakland – California – U.S.A – El Jadida – Marrakech – Morocco

[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”presentation/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2CyYuQjv0w1rMLdbTTRedaD-3YoRSPsj291SJjCI2P45YZ6-sMCtYNsg9phAZ6Qwu9bedDTiK0w6g/embed” query=”start=true&loop=true&delayms=3000″ width=”960″ height=”569″ /]

• Mazagan Magazine
• Mémoires Connaissances et Familles Made in Mazagan El Jadida Doukkala
• Driss Chraïbi Abdelkebir Khatibi
• Made in Doukkala – Maroc
• DOUKKALA DÉ-COLLAGE
• Morocco – Maroc – Marruecos – 11/2/2024
• Espace Athlétique de Said El Mansour Cherkaoui
• Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

★★★★★

---

TRI CK USA – Tri Consulting Kyoto – Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

---

Africa California Egypt – USA Export-Import International Trade Morocco Said El Mansour Cherkaoui TRI CK USA TRI Consulting Kyoto USA

Tri Consulting Kyoto and Said El Mansour Cherkaoui: – Africa – Americas – Asia – Europe

TRI CONSULTING KYOTO TRI CK USA – TRI USA California provides you with adaptable solutions even in street-smart slang and Californian and American corporate language. Investment and Trade Moroccan Delegation in USA TRI CK USA – Moroccan Diaspora Worldwide Network Dear Moroccan Professionals in Silicon Valley, Looking forward to welcoming you! The venue will be shared shortly. Moroccan Official Delegation will be … Continue reading Tri Consulting Kyoto and Said El Mansour Cherkaoui: – Africa – Americas – Asia – Europe

TRI CK USA – CALIFORNIA

Strategic planning provides a roadmap, aligns objectives, and optimizes resource allocation, while business development identifies opportunities, builds relationships, and drives revenue growth.

TRI CK USA delivers solutions and results that are the core of our consulting, advising, and mentoring strategies that aim to increase efficiencies, save resources, reduce costs, increase revenue, improve profit margin, and develop owner and shareholder return on investment.

Strategic planning and business development are two areas of TRI CK USA specialization and support processes that enable business growth of our clients.

• Strategic planning defines long-term management objectives, and enhances short-term goals as steps toward realizing the expected results by:

• Aligning objectives
• Optimizing resource allocation
• Defining jobs within an organization
• Planning, exploring, analyzing, or evaluating business plans

• Business development aim to enable the following steps:

• Identifying opportunities
• Building relationships
• Driving revenue growth
• Identifying, developing, and implementing growth opportunities
• Market expansion
• Brand projection
• New customer acquisition 

Cluster of Intervention for Strategic planning process extracted, adaptable, and translated from the sector, industry, region, country, and conditions of the market:

1. Determine your strategic position
2. Prioritize your objectives
3. Develop a strategic plan
4. Execute and manage your plan
5. Review and revise the plan

TRI CK USA in California provides mentoring and support to entrepreneurs for the launching of their projects and the operational management of their small businesses.

TRI CK USA in California advises diverse entrepreneurs in creating thriving businesses servicing their stakeholders, their communities, their region, and their country.   

Contact by Email:

For more inputs on services offered and provided by TRI CONSULTING KYOTO – TRI CK USA, please send an email to: info@triconsultingkyoto.com

For engagement, forwarding unsolicited RFP, RFQ, Request for Tender(RTF), Request for Quote(RFQ), and Request for Expression of Interest (EOI), please send an email to: support@triconsultingkyoto.com

The corresponding topics are selected based on their relevancy and authenticity that can shape, formulate, and contribute directly to the conduction of successful management, planning, and managing operations and projects within close and distant marketplaces, economies, and cultural settings:

TRI Consulting Kyoto Team has created Groups and Pages on several Social Media Platforms where current analysis, news, and intelligent knowledge and insights are published to share its knowledge base and contribute to the advancement around the world of understanding and encourage interactions about and between regions and countries and decision-makers in the public and the private sector.

• DIASPORA of AFRICAN EXECUTIVES
• AFRICAN EXECUTIVE NOTES Professional Training and Coaching Oakland, California
• TRI CONSULTING KYOTO – TRI CK USA
• TRI NEWS REPORT – GLOBAL USA VISION – Business Consulting and Services Oakland, California
• Africana Enterprise Advanced Education Oakland, California
• Tateyoko Research Institute Business Consulting and Services
• CALIFORNIA CONSULTANT COMMUNITY

• RAPPORT TRI NEWS – VISION GLOBALE DES USA
• COMMUNAUTÉ DE CONSULTANTS DE CALIFORNIE
• NOTES EXÉCUTIVES AFRICAINES
• Maroc Digitall – Maroc Tech

For any additional indications or to have our Founder Said El Mansour Cherkaoui as Speaker or Presenter at Events, Conferences, Seminars or Training Sessions related to the subjects and content addressed by our publications, please send an email to : info@triconsultantkyoto.com

Septembre 30, 2023 1:25 am

While Ghana aspires to modernize and expand economic opportunity, it is constrained by a struggling power distribution sector and unreliable electricity for homes and businesses. As a leading trade hub in West Africa, Ghana’s economic success carries global significance.

Ghana, like many African nations, has long grappled with energy access and reliability issues, hindering industrialization in both urban and rural communities. Between late 2012 and 2016, Ghana experienced a severe electricity crisis called ‘Dumsor’.

This crisis was caused by a drought from the Volta Lake that threatened electricity production from the Akosombo Dam, Ghana’s largest energy generating station. The crisis triggered a severe power rationing programme resulting in heavy load shedding throughout the country. At the height of this crisis, consumers faced at least 16-hour power cuts every 24 hours. Henceforth, the country’s power sector has failed to keep up with increasing demand from a growing population of over 31 million people.

Ghana’s energy sector has significant debt. The country’s electricity access rate is 86.63%, with 50% of rural residents and 91% of urban residents connected to the electricity grid. 

In 2021, 86.63% of Ghana’s population had access to electricity. This is a 0.86% increase from 2020. 50% of rural residents and 91% of urban residents are connected to the electricity grid.  Ghana’s electricity access rate is one of the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. The Bank’s April 2023 Africa’s Pulse Report scored Ghana 81.2%. This was followed by: 

• Côte D’Ivoire (77%)
• Kenya (76%)
• Senegal (73.5%)
• Nigeria (69.1%)
• Rwanda (65%)
• Gambia (61%)

Ghana’s installed capacity is around 4,300 MW. In 2018, Ghana’s peak demand exceeded its installed capacity by more than 2,000 MW. Ghana’s main sources of thermal power are natural gas, diesel, and sometimes light crude oil. The country exports power to Benin, Burkina Faso, and Togo. 

Ghana’s electricity demand is expected to rise from 21.3 thousand gigawatt hours in 2021 to over 36.5 thousand gigawatt hours in 2030. However, Ghana’s actual availability of electricity rarely exceeds 2,400 MW due to: 

• Changing hydrological conditions
• Inadequate fuel supplies
• Dilapidated infrastructure

Ghana’s energy sector is expected to see generation/supply shortfalls of at least: 

• 467MW in 2025
• 916MW in 2026

Ghana’s power supply sources include: 

• Hydroelectricity
• Thermal fueled by crude oil, natural gas, and diesel
• Solar
• Imports from La Cote D’Ivoire

Ghana’s energy supply is dominated by thermal generation (68%), followed by hydropower (31%). Gas is the largest source of electricity production, followed by hydropower. 

Ghana’s Current Response to the Energy Crisis

Ghana unveiled its $550 billion Energy Transition and Investment Plan (ETIA) at the UN General Assembly on September 21, 2023. The plan aims to achieve net-zero emissions and universal energy access by 2060. It also aims to create 400,000 jobs. 

H.E. Nana Akufo-Addo, the President of Ghana launched the Ghana Energy Transition and Investment Plan on 21 September 2023 during the UN General Assembly.

“This pioneering “Energy Transition and Investment Plan” maps out Ghana’s journey to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 based on the latest data and evidence, ensuring that as our economy thrives, it does so in harmony with the environment.” Declaration of his H.E. Nana Akufo-Addo, the President of Ghana.

The Energy Transition and Investment Plan includes: 

The Energy Transition and Investment Plan is expected to be the government’s main roadmap for achieving these goals. It will help Ghana achieve net-zero energy-related carbon emissions by deploying low-carbon. 

• Achieving net-zero emissions
• Creating 400,000 jobs
• Universal energy access
• 150 GW of solar PV
• Hydropower, biomass, solar energy, and wind energy

Ghana uses both renewable (10%) and non-renewable (90%) forms of energy.

To address energy shortfalls, the Ghana government introduced policy interventions in 2019 aimed at boosting the utilization of renewable energy and fulfilling its commitments to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). The key of these interventions was the Government’s Renewable Energy Master plan, which sought to among others, increase the proportion of renewable energy in the national energy generation mix from 42.5 MW in 2015 to 1,363.63 MW by 2030.

Ghana integrated some renewable energy solutions into its national grid, which also includes a Hydro-Solar Hybrid (HSH) plant at Banda in the Bui enclave. This HSH plant, managed by the Bui Power Authority, has a hydro capacity of 404MW and a solar capacity of 55MW. The plant makes use of Huawei’s Smart Photovoltaic (PV) Solution to fuel the national grid which supports communities, factories, enterprises, and small-scale businesses of over 24,000 locals in the Banda community. Bui Power Authority – BPA supports the Government’s goals of increased renewable energy penetration in the country and its greenhouse gas reduction obligations.

Banda in the Bui Enclave – One megawatt floating solar at Bui, Bono East Region – Bui Power Authority

Aerial-view-of-the-5MW-Floating-Solar-at-the-Bui-Generating-Station. This is the strategy that Morocco should emulate to save energy, to produce clean energy near where it is needed most while protecting the reserve of water from evaporation during sunny days and recuperating the power produced during the night.

Bui Power Authority leads the way for floating solar Installation in the West African Sub-Region

Power Africa worked with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to conduct and review grid impact and stability studies for the project, which is being built in installments of 50 MW to a total of 250 MW. The project generates renewable energy from solar that can operate during the day to complement existing hydropower production. The facility also features a 1 MW floating solar component. Due to increasingly low water levels, especially during the dry season, BPA opted to add a solar element to the existing hydropower plant. This move enables the plant to operate during the day, harnessing the vast solar radiation resource in northern Ghana while giving grid operators more flexibility to run the hydropower plant during the evening.

The most commonly used energy resources are: 

• Biomass (46.667%)
• Oil (40.52%)
• Natural gas (10%)

Ghana’s energy strategy is to diversify its energy portfolio and increase the role of renewables. 

The government’s Renewable Energy Master Plan (REMP) aims to increase the country’s renewable energy capacity from 42.5 MW in 2019 to about 1390 MW by 2030. 

The REMP is a US$ 5.6 billion investment plan, with more than 80% coming from the private sector. The plan is implemented over a 12-year time-space, from 2019 to 2030. 

Ghana’s energy strategy includes:

Ghana’s National Energy Policy focuses on the country’s vast mini hydro potential. Twenty-one micro- and medium-hydro power sites, with generation capacities ranging from 4kW to 325 kW, have already been identified as suitable for power generation. 

• Renewable energy: Ghana’s goal is to have 10% of its energy come from renewable sources by 2030. This includes adding 520 MW of solar, 325 MW of wind, and 60 MW of hydro from 2022 to 2030.
• Net zero emissions: Ghana plans to achieve net zero emissions by 2060 by using six main decarbonizing technologies. 

These technologies include:

• Small hydro potential: The government’s National Energy Policy focuses on using the country’s small hydro potential. Ghana has 21 micro- and medium-hydro power sites with generation capacities ranging from 4kW to 325 kW.
• Energy Sector Recovery Program: The Energy Sector Recovery Program (ESRP) was approved in 2019 to address cost under-recovery in the sector. The program is a five-year plan with 30 reform actions to bring the sector into financial equilibrium by 2023.
• Electrification and renewables
• Carbon capture and storage
• Low-carbon hydrogen
• Battery electric vehicle technologies
• Clean cooking technologies

Ghana’s energy mix is expected to provide affordable electricity at a generation cost below 4.5 cents/kwh. 

Some ways to solve Ghana’s energy crisis include: 

• Diversifying the electricity generation mix
• Expanding the prepaid metering system
• Having other independent power distributors
• Consulting energy experts and engaging civil society organizations
• Producing biofuels from plants like corn and soybeans
• Promoting the establishment of dedicated woodlots for wood fuel production
• Promoting the production and use of improved cookstoves
• Replacing high energy-consuming appliances with energy-efficient refrigerators, air conditioners, fans, and lighting systems

Other possible solutions to the global energy crisis include: 

• Moving towards renewable resources
• Buying energy-efficient products
• Lighting controls
• Easier grid access
• Energy simulation
• Performing energy audits
• A common stand on climate change

Ghana Actual Energy Supply Chain Management:

According to the International Trade Administration, Ghana’s energy sector currently relies on hydro and thermal generation fueled by crude oil, natural gas, and diesel. Thermal generation accounts for nearly 66% of Ghana’s power generation mix, with hydro accounting for 33%. In total, Ghana’s electric access rate stands at just over 86%, with 91% of urban residents and 50% of rural residents being actively connected to the electricity grid.

Ghana imports energy to secure its supply and promote inter-regional energy trade. Ghana imports natural gas from Nigeria through the West African Gas Pipeline. Ghana also imports petroleum fuel because it has limited oil reserves. 

Ghana’s over reliance on fossil fuels makes its energy insecure and threatens its economic growth and development. The country’s power sector cannot meet electricity demand. The Ghanaian government is turning to liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an alternative fuel source. 

These are the prevailing conditions of the Energy sector in Ghana and the Government is seeking an exit from such dilemma and challenging energetic deficiencies.

The Energy Commission of Ghana was established in 1997. The commission’s main objectives are to: 

• Regulate and manage Ghana’s energy resources
• Coordinate all energy-related policies
• Provide the legal, regulatory, and supervisory framework for all energy providers in the country
• Grant licenses for transmission, wholesale, and supply
• Advise the government on energy matters

The commission consists of seven commissioners responsible for: Licensing, Renewables, Infrastructure, Efficiency.  The Ministry of Energy is responsible for: 

• Formulating, monitoring, and evaluating energy policies, programs, and projects
• Supervising and coordinating the activities of Energy Sector Agencies
• Implementing the National Electrification Scheme (NES)
• Formulating and implementing laws and policies, such as the Renewable Energy Act of 2011

Foreign investments in Ghana

Kasoa, C/R, Ghana – With the inauguration of the Kasoa Bulk Supply Point (BSP) today, the United States has completed its nearly six-year $316 million investment in Ghana’s energy infrastructure, supporting more reliable power for hundreds of thousands of schools, hospitals, offices, and homes in Ghana. Jun 1, 2022

• USD 200,000 for joint ventures with a Ghanaian partner
• USD 500,000 for enterprises wholly owned by a non-Ghanaian
• USD 1 million for trading companies

Foreign Investments in Ghana’s Energy Sector: 

Ghana’s energy sector is becoming an increasingly attractive destination for foreign investment. The country has a high potential for solar energy generation and a favorable investment climate for solar energy companies. 

Here are some foreign investments in Ghana’s energy sector: 

• IFCAs of March 2023, IFC’s investment portfolio in Ghana was $446 million in financing and $12.5 million in advisory services.

Ghana’s top investing countries are South Africa, The Netherlands, France, Mauritius, and China. 

China is the world’s largest investor in Africa in terms of total capital. In 2020, China’s total stock of foreign direct investments (FDI) in Ghana was around $1.6 billion. 

In the first half of 2021, Ghana’s largest investment partners were: 

• Singapore: $307.50 million
• Australia: $204.01 million
• India: $61.57 million
• The Netherlands: $46.80 million

Some of Ghana’s other major foreign investors include China, The United Kingdom, South Africa, The Netherlands, and Australia.  China maintains the highest number of investment projects in Ghana, followed by India, the UK, South Africa, Turkey, Mauritania, and France. 

FDI flows in Ghana are mainly directed to the following sectors: 

The State Department says that foreign investors have limited market access in the following sectors: 

• Oil and gas, Services, Trade, Agriculture, Construction, Manufacturing. 
• Banking, Fishing, Petroleum, Mining, Real estate, Telecommunications. 

U.S. Investments in Ghana

Ghana and the United States have a strong economic partnership with bilateral trade reaching $2.7 billion in 2021. Following the success of the first Ghana Compact with MCC, which supported the country’s transport and agricultural sectors, MCC and the Government of Ghana renewed their partnership in 2014 and signed a $316 million Ghana Power Compact. Jun 1, 2022 — United States – The U.S. government’s Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and the Government of Ghana formally completed the 5-year, $316 million MCC – Ghana Power Compact today, celebrating a partnership that created a more effective, sustainable, and inclusive power sector in Ghana.

MCC Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Mahmoud Bah (center), receives a tour of the Pokuase Bulk Supply Point (BSP), which is one of the four power stations built as part of the $316 million MCC-Ghana Power Compact. 

This new investment aimed to transform the country’s energy sector by investing in new power infrastructure, advancing energy-efficiency practices, and creating inclusive economic opportunities in the power sector that will support more reliable power for hundreds of thousands of schools, hospitals, offices, and homes in Ghana, including the Kasoa Bulk Supply Point.

Ghana’s government launched an Energy Transition and Investment Plan on September 21, 2023, during the UN General Assembly. The plan is intended to attract investors and the international community to help Ghana transition to energy. The plan is worth $550 billion and represents an opportunity for the international community to invest in Ghana’s sustainable development. 

Ghana’s main sources of thermal power are natural gas, diesel, and sometimes light crude oil. The country exports power to Benin, Burkina Faso, and Togo. 

Model for the Generation of Electricity in Morocco

Bui Power Authority – BPA – Model of Mix Generation of Electricity Combining the use of Solar elements added to existing hydropower Plant

The operational 50 MW phase of the Bui Power Authority hybrid-solar-hydro project. Photo Credit: BPA

Power Africa worked with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to conduct and review grid impact and stability studies for the project, which is being built in installments of 50 MW to a total of 250 MW. The project generates renewable energy from solar that can operate during the day to complement existing hydropower production. The facility, which also features a 1 MW floating solar component, is expected to be completed in 2023.

Mr. Yaw Osafo-Maafo, Senior Minister on behalf of President Akufo-Addo, said, “This project further shows my government’s commitment to deliver on the promise to increase the renewable energy component in our energy mix to 10 percent by 2030.”

Due to increasingly low water levels in Morocco, as is the case in Ghana also especially during the dry season, BPA opted to add a solar element to the existing hydropower plant. This move enables the plant to operate during the day, harnessing the vast solar radiation resource in northern Ghana while giving grid operators more flexibility to run the hydropower plant during the evening.

This novel approach has the potential to be replicated with other utilities not only in Ghana but across the West African sub-region as well as in the entire Africa where similar challenges existed. This approach can lead to more sustainable forms of energy generation.

In line with Ghana’s mission to promote access to reliable, clean, and affordable electricity, Power Africa assisted the Bui Power Authority (BPA) to operationalize the first 50 megawatt (MW) phase of its 250 MW solar-hydro hybrid project. This first 50 MW plant resulted in the doubling of Ghana’s grid-connected solar energy and is expected to cut greenhouse gas emissions by more than 47,000 tons per year.

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Oakland, California 1/22/24

Les Groupes de Said El Mansour Cherkaoui ou vous pouvez lire ses publications:

TRI CONSULTING KYOTO – TRI CK USA

TRI NEWS REPORT – GLOBAL USA VISION

TRI CK USA CALIFORNIA – January 24 to 27, 2024 – Oakland, San Francisco Bay Area, Silicon Valley, California – USA

In 2020, Ghana had enough gold refinery projects in the pipeline to be adjudged sub-Saharan Africa's biggest gold refining hub outside South Africa.

This was of course entirely in line with its status as Africa's largest gold producer.

Why then do Ghanaians, their leaders and… pic.twitter.com/n7SJPG7vT3

— Bright Simons (@BBSimons) August 13, 2024

Twin Peak: Inflation and Staginflation

🌐 KEY POINTS:

Hotter-than-expected inflation numbers could mean the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates more aggressively in the coming months.

🌎The consumer-price index [CPI], which measures the cost of goods and services, climbed 8.3% in April down from 8.5% in March but is still above analysts’ expectations of 8.1% and near the highest level in more than 40 years.
🌎The decrease of CPI is partly a result of dips in the price of energy and used vehicles.
🌍Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also was higher than expected, rising 6.2%.
🌐 Shelter costs, which make up about a third of the CPI, rose by 5.1% year-on-year — the fastest increase since April 1991.
🌐 Inflation-adjusted earnings continued to decline for workers. The soaring cost of living caused inflation adjusted earnings to drop 2.6% over the past year 🌐

#energy #food #interestrates #inflation #cpi #consumertrends #price #indexation

---

---

Inflation: Incremental Inputs and Perspectives

Selected Articles by Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

---

• Said El Mansour Cherkaoui 25/9/19 Oakland USA
• Sciences Po, Grenoble
• Institut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amérique Latine, Paris
• Université de la Sorbonne, Paris III

Théorie Quantitative de la Monnaie

VIEW ON THE NEW ECONOMY

Vue sur la Nouvelle Economie

Economie Politique ou Politique Economique

MISE À JOUR LE 19 FÉVRIER 2020

Des origines lointaines

Dès la Renaissance, Nicolas Copernic ou Jean Bodin mettent en relation le lien entre la quantité de monnaie en circulation et l’évolution des prix. En effet, l’arrivée d’or suite à la colonisation de l’Amérique entraîne des poussées inflationnistes, principalement en Espagne.

Show Me the Gold or the Money !!!!!

La théorie quantitative de la monnaie postule un lien direct entre la quantité de monnaie en circulation et le niveau des prix. Selon cette approche, une stimulation monétaire n’a pas d’effets bénéfiques durables sur l’économie, elle ne générera que de l’inflation.

Au XIXème siècle, la théorie quantitative de la monnaie a été approfondie notamment par David Ricardo.

“L’échange lie entre elles toutes les nations du monde civilisé par le nœud commun de l’intérêt, par des relations amicales, et en fait une seule et grande société… La rente est cette portion du produit de la terre que l’on paie au propriétaire pour avoir le droit d’exploiter les facultés productives et impérissables du sol. Cependant on confond souvent la rente avec l’intérêt et le profit du capital, et dans le langage vulgaire on donne le nom de rente à tout ce que le fermier paie annuellement au propriétaire. “Des principes de l’économie politique et de l’impôt”, 1817

---

Karl Marx, pourtant opposé sur de nombreux points à la pensée de Ricardo, est lui aussi un partisan de la théorie quantitative de la monnaie. Celle-ci peut se résumer ainsi : une variation de la masse monétaire se traduit par une augmentation des prix.

Plus de détails les positions de Karl Marx se trouvent dans les pages illustrées et le Sommaire cite ci-dessous.

• Introduction
• 1. Les hypothèses générales
• 2. La valeur de la monnaie dans la théorie de la monnaie-marchandise
• 3. Demande de monnaie pour la thésaurisation et « loi » de la quantité de moyen d’échange
• 4. La demande de monnaie pour la thésaurisation n’est pas une demande d’encaisse de transactions

Cahiers d’économie politique, n°13, 1987. Conceptions de la monnaie : un enjeu théorique.

Résumés des articles / Abstracts of the papers [résumés]7 – 13

• Référence bibliographique

3 – 208 Argent et désir d’argent chez Aristote et Marx. [article]3 – 17 Arnaud Berhoud

Plan

La théorie de la monnaie- marchandise chez Marx. [article]19 – 46 Carlo Benetti

Adam Smith et la théorie quantitative de la monnaie. [article]47 – 71 Jérôme de Boyer

Les forces accidentelles dans un processus smithien de gravitation : une saisie par un modèle probabiliste. [article]73 – 89 Reiner Franke

Emission et valeur de la circulation chez Ricardo. [article]91 – 104 Jean Cartelier

John Law, précurseur de Keynes et théoricien du circuit ? [article]105 – 129 Marie-Thérèse Boyer-Xambeu

L’offre et la demande de crédit chez Schumpeter [article]131 – 152 Marcello Messori

Anticipations et conventions en situation d’incertitude. [article]153 – 172 André Orlean

Monnaie et Marchandise. [article]173 – 184 Rudolf Hilferding

Quelques réflexions à propos de l’article : « Monnaie et Marchandise» de R. Hilferding. [article]185 – 190 Achille Decot Arnaud Rys

Mesure de la valeur et système monétaire : la tentative de Gray (1848). Textes et commentaire. [article]191 – 208 Jean Cartelier

Sommaires. Cahiers d’économie politique [tables et index]209 – 214

• Référence bibliographique

Un peu de technique

L’équation à la base de la théorie quantitative de la monnaie est due à Irvin Fischer, économiste américain du début du XX^ème siècle. Elle se présente sous la forme :

M×V = P×Y

---

Où M est la quantité de monnaie en circulation, V la vitesse de circulation de la monnaie (nombre de transactions effectuées), P le niveau des prix et Y le volume de production (autrement dit le PIB).

Cette équation est une identité comptable, pas une théorie en soi. Cependant, les partisans de la théorie quantitative de la monnaie considèrent que V est fixe et que Y est indépendant de la quantité de monnaie en circulation. Dans ce cas, une variation de la masse monétaire se répercute mécaniquement en une variation du niveau des prix. Autrement dit une hausse de la quantité de monnaie crée mécaniquement de l’inflation.

La théorie quantitative de la monnaie sera défendue dans la seconde moitié du XX^ème siècle par un courant de pensée parfois appelé monétariste, dont Milton Friedman était un des principaux représentants.

Selon Friedman, « l’inflation est toujours et partout un phénomène monétaire en ce sens qu’elle est et qu’elle ne peut être générée que par une augmentation de la quantité de monnaie plus rapide que celle de la production ».

Cette approche ne fait cependant pas l’unanimité chez les économistes et a été contestée notamment par John Maynard Keynes.

Le débat keynésien-monétariste

Pour Keynes, une hausse de la quantité de monnaie peut avoir un effet direct sur l’économie et le volume de production. En effet, si les agents économiques ont plus d’argent en leur possession, ils vont le dépenser ou l’investir, ce qui entraînera une hausse de la production (c’est-à-dire du PIB) et une baisse du chômage.

Cela est notamment vrai en cas de crise économique et de sous-emploi des facteurs de production (chômage, usines fermées…). Dans ce cas, comme une partie de l’appareil productif est inemployé, une stimulation de la demande venant de l’augmentation de la quantité de monnaie peut plus efficacement dynamiser l’activité économique.

Selon Keynes, les agents économiques peuvent être victimes d’une « illusion nominale », ce qui signifie qu’ils perçoivent mal les effets de l’inflation sur leur pouvoir d’achat. En conséquence, si la masse monétaire augmente, les prix augmentent, mais la production aussi puisque les agents investissent et consomment plus.

Si les monétaristes reconnaissent qu’une hausse de la quantité de monnaie en circulation peut stimuler l’activité économique à court terme, ils estiment qu’elle conduira mécaniquement à une hausse de l’inflation à moyen terme. En effet, du fait des anticipations rationnelles des agents, ceux-ci anticipent plus d’inflation si la masse monétaire augmente, adaptent leurs comportements en conséquence, ce qui génère de l’inflation sans hausse de la production.

Le débat n’est pas encore tranché entre les monétaristes partisans de la théorie quantitative de la monnaie, et les keynésiens qui nuancent ces conclusions.

Ces différentes visions ont éclaté au grand jour suite à la crise de 2008. Pour les keynésiens, il fallait baisser les taux d’intérêt, voire lancer un assouplissement quantitatif (QE) afin de relancer l’économie en facilitant la création monétaire. A l’inverse, les monétaristes prédisaient que ces politiques allaient générer une inflation galopante. Pour l’instant, la hausse des prix à la consommation reste faible malgré des politiques monétaires très accommodantes.

Mais on observe cependant que les prix des actifs (actions, immobilier) ont sensiblement augmenté. Phénomène annonciateur de la bulle de demain ?

” La monnaie, c’est bien connu, sert deux desseins principaux. Agissant comme monnaie de compte, elle facilite les échanges (…) En second lieu, elle est une réserve de richesse. Parce que, (…), notre désir de conserver de la monnaie comme réserve de richesse est un baromètre de notre degré de méfiance à l’égard de nos propres calculs et conventions concernant le futur. La signification de cette caractéristique a généralement été négligée (…Ce qui a attiré l’attention était la quantité de monnaie thésaurisé. Mais la quantité thésaurisée ne peut être altérée que si la quantité totale de monnaie est changée (…) tandis que des fluctuations dans le degré de confiance sont capables d’avoir un effet tout différent (…) non pas en modifiant le montant qui est réellement thésaurisé, mais le montant de la prime qui doit être offerte pour inciter les gens à ne pas thésauriser. Et les changements dans la propension à thésauriser, ou dans l’état de la préférence pour la liquidité comme je l’ai appelée, affectent principalement, non pas les prix, mais le taux d’intérêt (….) Ceci, exprimé de façon générale, est ma théorie du taux d’intérêt. « La Théorie générale de l’emploi, de l’intérêt et de la monnaie », 1936

Un État-providence est la prescription contre les révolutions populaires ou populistes

L’État-providence est le diagnostic de la chute du capitalisme qui avait besoin d’un antidote pour digérer les crises et maintenir le rythme de la consommation en stimulant la production et en répartissant la valeur ajoutée entre la main-d’œuvre et le capital sans ingérence des syndicats, des organisations syndicales ou des partis politiques à orientation socialiste.

En ce sens, John Maynard Keynes a renversé la logique d’analyse et de diagnostic de Karl Marx des faiblesses du Capital et les a transformées sous forme de potions thérapeutiques internes sans changer la structure sociale ou la propriété des moyens de production. Dès lors, l’État est devenu le distributeur des moyens d’accumulation du capital et le centre d’équilibre du système capitaliste, séparant la main-d’œuvre des investisseurs en instaurant et en contrôlant de nouvelles règles et législations qui sont la garantie de la reproduction de la main-d’œuvre et de la génération de profit sans parvenir à une confrontation extrême pour résoudre leurs interactions et relations antagonistes. La fin des monopoles a été l’une des premières actions réglementées prises par l’État pour contrôler l’expansion du Capital au détriment de la main-d’œuvre tout en limitant la représentation professionnelle et politique de la classe ouvrière à une gouvernance participative. De nouvelles strates se sont alors formées et intégrées qui sont devenues les intermédiaires et les fournisseurs des services et fonctions connexes que sont les bureaucrates et les technocrates.

remettant en cause les idées de l’économie néoclassique selon laquelle les marchés libres fourniraient automatiquement, à court et moyen terme, le plein emploi, tant que les travailleurs étaient flexibles dans leurs revendications salariales. Il a fait valoir que la demande globale (dépenses totales dans l’économie) déterminait le niveau global de l’activité économique, et qu’une demande globale inadéquate pouvait conduire à des périodes prolongées de chômage élevé. Keynes a préconisé l’utilisation de politiques fiscales et monétaires pour atténuer les effets néfastes des récessions et des dépressions économiques.

Le changement de l’épicentre du commerce mondial avait provoqué des pertes fonctionnelles continuelles pour les systèmes bancaires et monétaires identifiés dans la prétention de domination et de conquête impériales.  

Ces mutations ont été promulguées d’abord par les courtisanes de la Couronne britannique de Grande-Bretagne qui ont promu l’école classique de pensée économique qui a abordé la valeur et l’argent avec Adam Smith et David Ricardo et qui a suscité la réponse de Karl Marx, en passant par tous les les changements qui se produisent en Europe donnent lieu à des guerres inter-bilatérales et à la montée d’une concurrence féroce pour la conquête des colonies suite à la perte de l’hémisphère Nord par la Couronne britannique.

---

---